Investors are advised to avoid major portfolio changes in response to election developments, focusing instead on managing exposure to vulnerable sectors like consumer discretionary. With President Biden facing scrutiny over his campaign performance and trailing in polls against Trump, election outcome probabilities have shifted, indicating a higher likelihood of a Trump victory. The implications for trade and market volatility are significant, with expectations of increased protectionism regardless of the election result.
Major US banks, led by JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, will report 3Q 2024 earnings starting October 11. JPMorgan's revenue is expected to rise 2.4% YoY to $41.7 billion, but EPS may drop 11% due to increased credit loss provisions amid economic caution. Analysts anticipate a contraction in net interest income as the Fed begins rate cuts, while investment banking activities may continue to show resilience.
The 2024 U.S. elections could significantly influence stock market sectors based on the candidates' policies. A Trump victory may boost energy, defense, and finance stocks, while a Harris win could enhance clean energy, healthcare, and infrastructure investments. Each outcome presents distinct opportunities and challenges for various industries.
The UK has officially shut down its last coal-fired power plant, marking a significant transition from coal to cleaner energy sources. While countries like the UK, Germany, and the US have made strides in reducing coal dependency, nations such as China and India continue to expand their coal power capacity amid rising electricity demands. Despite the global push for cleaner energy, coal remains a dominant power source, meeting about 35% of global energy needs.
Bitcoin has surged past $66,000, driven by optimism surrounding potential Chinese economic support and interest rate trends in the US. Investors are closely watching the upcoming US labor market report, which could influence monetary policy and market sentiment ahead of the presidential election. With a 53.3% chance of a significant interest rate cut, the Fed's decisions will be pivotal in shaping the economic landscape.
Public sector pay will increase by 4¾% to 6% in 2024–25, costing an additional £9.4 billion. While public sector pay has historically outperformed the private sector, it has lagged since 2014, with recruitment and retention challenges prevalent across various sectors, particularly in the NHS and police. The need for competitive pay is pressing, especially as the NHS aims to expand its workforce significantly by 2036.
Most wealthy investors are contemplating portfolio adjustments ahead of the November 5 U.S. presidential election, with 77% considering new allocations. The economy is viewed as the top election issue by 84% of investors, who are nearly split on which candidate—Donald Trump or Kamala Harris—would manage it better. Potential beneficiaries of Harris's policies include healthcare and sustainable investing sectors, while Trump's presidency could favor defense and energy industries.
The Federal Reserve's recent 50-basis point rate cut has sparked optimism in equity markets, with the S&P 500 reaching a record high and a year-to-date gain of 20.2%. This easing cycle is expected to support oil prices, projected to rise to around USD 87 a barrel by year-end, while gold has surged nearly 29% this year, potentially reaching USD 2,700 by mid-2025. However, the US dollar faces pressure as the Fed's cuts diminish its yield advantage, prompting investors to seek alternatives and diversify internationally.
Ethereum's price is influenced by the People's Bank of China's economic stimulus and potential easing of monetary policy, which may drive investors towards crypto assets. Attention is also on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech and US price data, with the presidential election campaign adding further market dynamics. Polls show Kamala Harris slightly ahead of Donald Trump, who is viewed as more crypto-friendly.
UBS Asset Management maintains a neutral stance on various asset classes amid signs of slowing growth and inflation. While European high yield offers attractive yields, credit spreads are close to cyclical lows, limiting potential price rises. The firm favors the Japanese yen due to anticipated monetary policy tightening and prefers US Treasuries for their improved hedging capacity.
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